CMU/NIU: Afterthoughts

I know it's a couple of days after the 33-30 overtime win Wednesday night, but it's been a busy couple of days for me. We got back into Mount Pleasant at 7 a.m. the following morning, and starting that early afternoon, it was time to put a Friday newspaper together. Plus, it was my 22nd birthday, so my folks came up from home and I had dinner with them ... you know the drill.

There's a few points to take from this game, because CMU is going to play arguably its most important game in years on Wednesday. More on that later.

• Blowing the lead. This was something I warned about during the halftime notes, when CMU held a 23-3 lead, and it was a sentiment that stuck with me even when it had a 30-6 lead in the third quarter. Northern Illinois is a very, very dangerous team, simply by virtue of its coach, Jerry Kill. With this team's back against the wall, it will attack in any way it can. And unfortunately, the Chippewas fell victim to not one onside kick, but two, and NIU easily recovered both. Who's to blame for that? The coaches. Coach Butch Jones said after the game that the team was prepared for both. The first onside kick recovery was forgivable. But from looking at replays, there was little evidence of preparation even for the second kick. You may have expected it - a lot of other people sure did - but that is not the same as appropriately preparing for it. Granted, kicker Mike Salerno did a heck of a job getting the right bounce, but there is no reason to not have a CMU player in the right position to make a play anyway. There were two white jerseys in the vicinity, and one took a massive block, leaving one CMU player and a horde of Huskies. The second onside kick was the key play of NIU's comeback for several reasons: It kept CMU's offense off the field for a long time, it kept the defense on the field for a long time, and bada-bing, the Huskies cut the deficit to 30-20 with plenty of time on the clock.
• Since Ball State ripped NIU 45-14, and CMU barely escaped the same team, does that prove BSU is a better team and will undoubtedly win Wednesday? Not at all. A few things to consider: Northern Illinois' gameplan against Central, in part, was based on its trip to Muncie, Ind. Like I mentioned before, NIU's back was against the wall on Wednesday, having the Ball State loss tallied and facing a big deficit to CMU. There was absolutely nothing to lose at that point. I would argue that had those two games switched, NIU would not have been so quick to try onside kicks and fake punt reverses, all of which keyed the comeback against the Chippewas. We could be looking at a much different recap of the NIU/CMU game in that case.
  
• What now? Obviously, there are flaws to correct before Ball State comes to town. I don't have a prediction ready until Tuesday or Wednesday morning, but I am expecting Central to come out strong for its home finale. And should this game get close, keep in mind that the Cardinals have virtually no close game experience this season, while the Chippewas have tons of it. Not one time has quarterback Nate Davis played with his back against the wall this year. That alone could affect how he plays, or how everybody else on the team plays. Of course BSU remembers the 58-38 loss to CMU last season and that will provide extra motivation.
• But Ball State has more to lose Wednesday. A loss not only blemishes its perfect season - it keeps it out of the MAC Championship. Central clinches the division with a win because it would own head-to-head tiebreakers over both BSU and WMU should it lose to Eastern the following week. A CMU loss would NOT keep the Chippewas out - they would obviously need a win at Eastern, but get this - They would need Western Michigan to win out, including against Ball State in the finale. That would open a three-way tie between CMU, WMU and BSU at 7-1 in the MAC and 4-1 in the West division, and it would all come down to the conference winning percentage of each team's MAC East opponents. Because Buffalo, a CMU and WMU opponent, beat Akron, a BSU opponent, on Thursday, as of right now Ball State (MAC East crossovers: 6-12) would be out of the picture, and CMU would beat WMU (MAC East crossovers: 7-11) because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Both teams played the same MAC East teams.
  
• Other direct MAC East games to worry about, in this case: All of these on Nov. 28: Kent State at Buffalo, Miami (Ohio) at Ohio and Akron at Temple. If you are a CMU fan, you want every home team to win these games. In fact, you want Buffalo, Ohio and Temple to win as many games as possible in the final two weeks, considering they all play MAC opponents. Who you DON'T want to win: Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Akron, all BSU opponents that could affect the tiebreaker.

Hope that clears everything up for now - anything can happen in these final two weeks. CMU could make it simple and clinch the West outright with a victory Wednesday, but that is not going to come easy by any means.

Also, there is a new poll to the right.