CMU/Ball State: NCAA 09's Prediction, and more

NCAA 09, at 6-3 this season in picks, is picking another close one.

Ball State opened up fast, taking a 21-7 lead midway through the second quarter. CMU's lone score came on a 57-yard run by senior Ontario Sneed to begin scoring, but the Cardinals would open up with three consecutive touchdowns: a one-yard pass from Nate Davis to Darius Hill, an interception return by linebacker Wendell Brown and a 13-yard pass from Davis to receiver Torieal Gibson.

CMU did kick a 26-yard field goal (Andrew Aguila) to cut the lead to 21-10 at halftime.

The Chippewas would take the lead in the third quarter, thanks to two Dan LeFevour touchdown passes: An 11-yard strike to Bryan Anderson and an 8-yard strike to Antonio Brown to make the score 24-21 at the end of three.

Cornerback Kirkston Edwards would return an 8-yard interception for a touchdown in the fourth to put CMU ahead 31-21 before a 4-yard pass from Davis to Hill closed it to 31-28. Aguila then kicks a 40-yard field goal, much like he did to cap off scoring last week, and CMU doesn't look back.

The Chippewas win 34-28.

Sneed, in his final game at Kelly/Shorts, runs for 106 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. LeFevour had a decent game, completing 24-of-32 passes for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns, albeit 2 interceptions as well.

My pick, as you saw in today's edition of CM Life, was CMU 31, Ball State 30.

I came extremely close to picking Ball State in this one. People argue that CMU's pass defense is too suspect and that Nate Davis is going to rack up all kinds of yardage, much in the same way as WMU's Tim Hiller did a month ago. I would agree that Davis is going to have a good night. But even Hiller, despite throwing for 470 yards, didn't beat CMU.

As statistically bad as Central's pass defense is, it has not lost a single game this year. The team lost to Georgia and Purdue by virtue of their run games, with the latter escaping because of a late 46-yard run by Kory Sheets. The pass defense fared particularly well against Curtis Painter, a guy who torched the Chippewas twice last season.

Therefore, I honestly do not see Ball State winning on Nate Davis' arm. If the Cardinals win today, it will come down to running back MiQuale Lewis and how well the Chippewas stop him, especially late in the game. Very few offensive teams do well without the presence of a run game (one exception, obviously, was Brian Brunner vs. Indiana) and if BSU can not depend on that, it is just not going to keep up with Central. But that is obviously more difficult than it sounds; I think Lewis will have some success tonight.

I think what will prevail tonight is swagger. Ball State is on a roll, true, but with the 112th strongest schedule in the nation out of 120 teams, it's largely unproven in games of this magnitude. Central is the toughest team it will have played to date - it's on the road, it's in the cold, and CMU knows how to win these tough games already. That's why I eventually decided to go with Central.

Besides, my own 10-0 record (in picking CMU games) is on the line, too. So either mine or Ball State's is going down tonight.